Finding the murderer

I have been watching a TV series called "Death in Paradise," by the BBC.  It's a who-done-it type of series set on one of the islands in the Caribbean and I highly recommend it.  The main detective is an Englishman through and through, the stereotype of what the rest of the world thing an Englishman should be.  No matter how hot it is he is always wearing suit, he enjoys a cup of tea  and is emotionally withdrawn.  Not prone outbursts.  So there is a comedic element which makes it good viewing.  The actor is Ben Miller playing Detective Inspector Richard Poole.  Poole's counterpart who is emotional and opinionated is Camille Bordey played by french actor Sara Martins, she is Poole's thorn, but she also adds a little feminine sex appeal as does Bordey's mother.  Again you could say there is a bit of stereotyping here because the BBC have chosen a sexy French woman to play the part.  The program is delightful, however as I've now watched seven episodes, even I am beginning to work out who the murderer is.  Unlike the Piorot series where it is always difficult to work out who the killer is.  Then Agatha Christie did go out of her way to make characters like cardboard and weave so many superficial red herrings so as to make it impossible to guess who the murderer would be.  Cerebraly challenging to an extent but also in the confusion of clues I'd say unsatisfying. 

So on the latest episode of Death in Paradise, I guessed who the murderer was within two minutes.  However, I didn't know the reason why.  To find a murderer there are three commandments to establish: motive, opportunity and means.  The most important usually is motive.  Money is always a good reason, but there are multiple motives all of which are the failings of the human condition.  Anger, avarice, jealousy, blackmail, dishonour but to name a few.  With the advent of multiple CSI based other TV series it goes without even saying forensics are vitally important.  However, these can be limited.  It was really Sherlock Holmes who first used forensics, and his great mental powers of deduction to establish events no other human could, hence came his famous saying

"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

There have been times when I have used this line of reasoning to come to a conclusion, however it is long winded and is based on the notion you can think up enough probably and weird events which are possible but become improbably as they are disregarded.  The thing being, you never actually know whether you have come up with the actual reason of something happening.  There is a little bit of crossing your fingers and hoping to die.  For instance, one permanent probability would be little green men from a spaceship did it.  Except most of the time this becomes improbably unless you happen to be viewing an episode of the X files in which case anything would be possible.  Note, Fox doesn't always get it right.  So what have we got then?  The murderer is usually someone who is known to the victim.  The murderer will usually have a reason of vital importance, it is to their advantage the victim is no longer around.  However, when watching a TV program this is usually hidden as much as possible and only comes out fully at the end of the script.  Or if it is known there is a couple of other red herrings with just as much justification for having the victim dead.  The murderer usually makes a mistake.  Well, lets face it.  They have to make a mistake, because if they don't then they are not going to get caught.  I'm sure it wouldn't be much excitement to have a TV series called "How to Get Away with Murder," it certainly wouldn't do the world much good if there was one.  Crimes would be happening left right and centre otherwise.  The one thing no TV producer wants to do is encourage breaking the law.  Lastly, the detective is always out of the ordinary.  They have some quirk of personality which makes you attached to them.  The ones who don't and I can think of a particular detective with no endearing quirks, is completely boring.  For a viewer, you don't want boring, otherwise the channel will be hopped.  Or worse a book is picked up, a BLOG written, or a phone call made to someone you just need to talk to. 

Well, where am I?  No one to talk to, bored of reading, already seen a detective program, ahh dear Watson it must be BLOG time.  The murderer is....